Arizona Democratic Party · March 2026

FRONTERAARIZONA 2026–2028

Register. Train. Win. Build for What Comes Next.

We don't get to 2028 without getting through 2026. Arizona will be one of the most contested Presidential battlegrounds in the country in two years — and the infrastructure of that election, who administers it, who certifies it, who enforces its results, is determined entirely by what Democrats do this November.

Re-electing Hobbs, Mayes, and Fontes isn't just about 2026. It's about ensuring that when the most consequential election of the decade arrives, Arizona is governed by people who will protect its outcome.

Frontera is the program that makes all of it possible. A 15-county statewide voter registration drive. A county leader training system that scales through every precinct in Arizona. A coordinated electoral strategy that ties voter reg to the legislative trifecta, the Congressional flip targets, and the messaging architecture that wins in a purple state under an anti-Trump wave. This program is the base. Everything else builds on it.

Launch Platform Real-time county dashboards. Field intelligence. Live data. Open →
186K
Dems lost in AZ 2020–24
280
Votes Mayes won AG by in 2022
4
House seats to flip the chamber
35K
Voter reg target by October 2026
2028
Presidential year. Starts with 2026.
Deliverable 01 · Arizona Democratic Party

BUDGET & REVENUE

$2M Goal · Three Revenue Tiers · $17M Three-Year Arc
$2M
2026 fundraising goal
$700K
Tier 1 — Committed / Likely
$500K
Tier 2 — Grants (Q1 priority)
$17M
Cumulative 3-year arc
Program Budget
CategoryQ1–Q2Q3–Q4Total
I. VOTER REGISTRATION PROGRAM — $500,000
Field Organizers (8 FTE × 9 months @ $4,500/mo)$162,000$162,000$324,000
Materials — t-shirts, clipboards, pens, forms (15 counties)$20,000$10,000$30,000
VAN + Mobilize technology licenses$10,000$5,000$15,000
Training events + venue / food$20,000$10,000$30,000
Data quality control + support staff$12,000$8,000$20,000
Contingency$50,000$31,000$81,000
Subtotal — Voter Registration$274,000$226,000$500,000
II. STAFF + OVERHEAD — $500,000
Frontera Program Director (1 FTE)$55,000$55,000$110,000
Regional Coordinators — N/S AZ (2 FTE)$85,000$85,000$170,000
Operations Manager (1 FTE)$45,500$45,500$91,000
Communications Staff (1 FTE)$42,500$42,500$85,000
Office / administrative overhead$22,000$22,000$44,000
Subtotal — Staff + Overhead$250,000$250,000$500,000
III. TRAININGS + CANDIDATE SUPPORT — $250,000
Frontera 15-County Tour — travel, venues, food$30,000$30,000
County Leader Conference — end of May$25,000$25,000
Training curriculum development + materials$20,000$20,000
Regional training events — May–Oct$25,000$25,000$50,000
Candidate support + coordination$25,000$25,000$50,000
Speaker fees + reimbursements + contingency$37,500$37,500$75,000
Subtotal — Trainings + Candidate Support$162,500$87,500$250,000
IV. RESERVE FOR 2027 — $750,000
6-Month Operating Reserve (Jan–Jun 2027 overhead bank)$750,000$750,000
Total 2026 Program Budget$686,500$1,313,500$2,000,000
Revenue Plan
Tier 1 — Committed / Likely · $700K
SourceQ1Q2Q3–Q4Total
ADP Cash on Hand (committed from existing reserves)$250,000$250,000
AFL-CIO / AZ State Labor Council$50,000$50,000$100,000
SEIU (State + Local Chapters)$50,000$50,000
Small Dollar / Email + SMS Fundraising$25,000$50,000$75,000$150,000
Local Events + Individual Donors (ADP existing list)$50,000$50,000$50,000$150,000
Tier 1 Subtotal$375,000$200,000$125,000$700,000
Tier 2 — Grant Opportunities · $500K
SourceQ1Q2Q3–Q4Target
DNC State Party Cycle Grant (est. $200–500K range for AZ)$200,000$200,000
Democracy Alliance Network — state party infrastructure$150,000$150,000
Wellspring Philanthropic / allied voter reg foundations$75,000$75,000
EMILY's List, LCV, additional foundation grants$75,000$75,000
Tier 2 Subtotal$500,000$500,000
Tier 3 — Pipeline / Potential · $800K
On the DNC When We Count Investment

The DNC announced Arizona as a national voter registration priority in January 2026. It has not been formally committed to ADP as a specific dollar amount. Locking this down early converts $250K–$500K of pipeline to committed revenue and de-risks the entire budget. If secured, it funds the voter registration program on its own.

SourceQ1Q2Q3–Q4Potential
DNC "When We Count" — AZ State Party Share (if formally secured)$250,000$250,000
DCCC Coordinated Investment (CD-1, CD-6)$150,000$150,000$300,000
Major Donor Cultivation (Democracy Alliance + new ADP relationships)$100,000$100,000$50,000$250,000
Tier 3 Subtotal$100,000$500,000$200,000$800,000
Total Revenue Target — All Tiers$475,000$1,200,000$325,000$2,000,000
Cash Flow
CategoryAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
Revenue$250K$150K$300K$125K$125K$125K$250K$100K$575K
Spend$130K$180K$170K$160K$140K$140K$130K$100K$100K
Net+$120K−$30K+$130K−$35K−$15K−$15K+$120K$0+$475K
Cumulative Balance$370K$340K$470K$435K$420K$405K$525K$525K$1.0M
Note: Beginning balance assumes $250K from ADP reserves before April launch. Year-end $1M covers the $750K reserve with $250K buffer heading into 2027.
Three-Year Arc
YearGoalVoter Reg TargetPrimary Focus
2026$2M50K new registrantsFrontera launch. Tour. Training. Voter reg dry run. Defend incumbents. Trifecta push. CD flips.
2027$5MYear-roundScale county infrastructure. Candidate support program. Precinct captain deployment. Presidential backbone.
2028$10MPresidential scaleFull Presidential coordinated campaign. Maximum voter contact. Arizona as a genuine Democratic win.
Cumulative$17MA fully built Arizona Democratic Party machine.

The Plan Is Only as Good as the Intelligence Behind It

The AZ Dems Command Center tracks every county, every organizer, every registration in real time. Budget targets map directly to program performance tracked live.

Launch Platform →About BxB

Next: Voter Registration Plan →

10K by June 22. 35K by October. All 15 counties. The electoral math behind every number.

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Deliverable 02 · Voter Registration

REGISTER ARIZONA

10,000 by June 22 · 35,000 by October · A Program, Not Just a Number
Phased TargetsCounty BreakdownPOC ComplianceElectoral Math
10K
June 22 primary deadline — proof of concept
35K
October general deadline — operational target
57.5K
County goals total — buffer to land at 35K+
207K
Current Dem deficit vs. Republicans statewide
Why 10K + 35K
Two Targets, Not One
10K by June 22 is the proof-of-concept — the number you bring to the County Leader Conference to unlock the fall funding conversation. 35K by October is what actually moves elections. Two targets you hit beats one you miss at 42K. And 57.5K in county goals means you land at 35K+ even with underperformance in Tier D counties.
The Electoral Math
What 35K Moves
At 60% Dem registration rate and 65% midterm turnout: ~21,000 new Democratic votes. Mayes won by 280. Three legislative seats decided by under 2,000. CD-6 is a margin-of-hundreds race. This program doesn't just register voters — it structurally protects the margins that protect the 2028 election apparatus.
15-County Breakdown
Tier A — Volume
Maricopa
Goal: 27,000
D: 739K · R: 917K · Gap −178K. Maryvale + West Valley = highest-density unregistered Latino pool in the state. Carries 47% of statewide goal.
Pima
Goal: 10,000
D: 245K · R: 187K · D+58K. Base county. South Tucson, Pascua Yaqui, Ajo corridor. Protect and expand the margin.
Tier B — Electoral Impact
Pinal
Goal: 5,000
Fastest-growing swing county. Exurban migration pool. Spans CD-1 + CD-5.
Cochise
Goal: 3,000
Heart of CD-6 flip. Douglas + Sierra Vista. Border community with deep labor ties.
Yuma
Goal: 3,500
Dense Latino working families. Highest ROI per organizer hour in the state.
Tier C — Tribal + Border
Apache
Goal: 2,000
Navajo Nation, Fort Apache, Hopi. Dedicated tribal liaison required on tour.
Navajo
Goal: 2,000
Holbrook, Winslow, Kayenta. Feeds LD-6 base mobilization directly.
Coconino
Goal: 2,000
Flagstaff, NAU student population, tribal portions.
Santa Cruz
Goal: 1,500
Nogales — most Dem-leaning county by ratio. Border economy workers.
Tier D — Infrastructure
Deep-red counties. Mission is county party training and volunteer activation — not registration volume. Presence matters. Every Frontera flag planted here is infrastructure for 2027 and 2028.
Mohave500
Gila300
Yavapai300
Graham200
Greenlee100
La Paz100
Critical Program Design
Mission Critical
Proof of Citizenship Compliance Officer
23,000+ Maricopa registrants already lack POC documentation — they can only vote in federal races, not governor, AG, SOS, or legislative. For a partisan state party program where the entire mission is defending those offices, a dedicated POC compliance coordinator is not overhead. It's essential.
Training: All organizers trained on POC requirements at onboarding
Events: Every registration event has a POC materials table and pathway
Follow-up: VAN flag + 30-day outreach protocol for incomplete registrations
Dashboard: Monthly POC completion rate tracked in AZ Dems platform
Phase Timeline
April → October
Apr–May · Launch
Frontera Tour. Volunteer surge. County leader training begins. Target: 3K registrations by May end.
Jun · Deadline Push
All hands to hit 10K by June 22. Daily events in Maricopa + Pima.
Jul–Sep · Build
Post-primary momentum. Unity Tour. Field offices. Tier B + C counties.
Oct · Close
Final push to 35K. Transition to ballot chase + GOTV dry run.
The 2028 Registration Math

If Frontera adds 35K new registrants in 2026 and retains 80% through 2028, and adds another 35K in 2027, Democrats arrive at the 2028 Presidential cycle with roughly 75,000 more registered voters than they would have had otherwise. Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 10,457 votes. That math is why this program exists.

Next: Tour → Train → Track →

How the 15-county tour launches the program and the training system sustains it through November.

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Deliverable 03 · County Leader Training Program

TOUR · TRAIN · TRACK

15 Counties. One Program. No County Left Behind.
April — 15-County TourMay — County Leader ConferenceJune–Nov — Ongoing + Tracking
15
Counties on the Frontera Tour
500
Volunteer signups targeted by end of tour
T3
Trainer-of-trainers model — each leader trains 5+ precinct captains
May
County Leader Conference — statewide convening, end of month
Phase 1 · April
The Frontera Tour
15-county listening and activation tour. Every county gets a visit, a volunteer drive, and elected official presence. Earned media in every market. ESA signature gathering at every stop if the initiative has qualified.
Goal: 500 volunteer signups statewide by tour end
Format: Community event + party meeting per county
Elected presence: State legislators where possible
ESA angle: Signature gathering at every stop (if qualified)
Tribal counties: Dedicated tribal liaison, extended visit windows
Phase 2 · May–October
The Training Program
Trainer-of-trainers model scaling from the County Leader Conference through weekly trainings for the rest of the cycle. Every trained leader becomes a force multiplier.
County Leader Conference (May): 1-2 day statewide convening. Curriculum: voter reg, VAN, Mobilize, precinct captains, messaging, GOTV planning
Curriculum modules: Register voters · Train others · VAN QC · Precinct captain recruitment · Earned media basics
Ongoing cadence: Weekly regional trainings May–Oct. Online + in-person. Recorded and distributed.
T3 model: Each county leader trains 5+ precinct captains who each train their block
Phase 3 · Ongoing
The Tracking System
Accountability infrastructure from April through November. VAN discipline, Mobilize sync, weekly reporting, and monthly reviews against county registration goals.
Monday: Follow-up with volunteers from prior weekend · commit VAN data
Thursday: Confirm weekend volunteers · prep logistics
Weekly report: Registrations · volunteer hours · event attendance · POC completion rate
Monthly review: Assess vs. county goals. Pivot. Reallocate organizer time.
Escalation: Counties below pace get Regional Coordinator intervention
April Tour Sequence
WK 1
Maricopa
Phoenix — launch event
WK 1
Pima
Tucson + South Tucson
WK 2
Yuma
Farmworker communities
WK 2
Santa Cruz
Nogales border stop
WK 2
Cochise
Douglas + Sierra Vista
WK 3
Graham
Safford
WK 3
Greenlee
Clifton
WK 3
Gila
Globe
WK 3
Pinal
Casa Grande + Eloy
WK 4
Apache
Whiteriver + St. Johns
WK 4
Navajo
Holbrook + Winslow
WK 4
Coconino
Flagstaff + NAU
WK 4
Yavapai
Prescott
WK 4
Mohave
Kingman + Lake Havasu
WK 4
La Paz
Parker
ESA Voucher Initiative Integration

If the Protect Education Act qualifies for the November ballot (needs 256K signatures by July 2), the Frontera Tour doubles as an ESA signature drive. Every county event is already organized, already has volunteers, and already has earned media attention. The ESA story and the voter registration story become one story — and each amplifies the other.

Next: Coordinated & Down-Ballot →

The full 2026 electoral map. Statewide races. Congressional targets. The legislative trifecta. Messaging architecture.

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Deliverable 04 · Electoral Support + Messaging

TRIFECTA OR BUST

Statewide Defense · Congressional Offense · Legislative Majority · One Message
Defend 3 StatewidesNew LG PositionFlip CD-1 + CD-6ADLCC CoordinatedESA VoucherMessaging Architecture
280
Votes Mayes won by. The margin everything protects.
4
House seats to flip — first Dem trifecta in 60 years
3
Senate seats to flip from 17–13
2
Congressional flip targets — CD-1 (open), CD-6
256K
Signatures by July 2 to put ESA voucher reform on ballot
The 2028 Argument
Why This Is About More Than 2026

A Republican Secretary of State controls voter roll maintenance, ballot design, and county canvassing oversight heading into 2028. A Republican Attorney General controls how election law gets enforced. A Republican Governor controls the certification process. This isn't an abstraction — it's what almost happened in 2022 when Mark Finchem nearly became SOS and Abe Hamadeh nearly became AG. Fontes won by 52%. Mayes won by 280 votes. Defending these offices in 2026 is about protecting the 2028 Presidential election in Arizona.

Statewide Races — Defend the Trifecta
Congressional Offense
Congressional Offense
CD-1: The Open Seat
Schweikert abandoned CD-1 to run for Governor — transforming a safe Republican seat into one of the most competitive open seats in the country. Dr. Amish Shah lost to Schweikert by under 4% in 2024 and is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Pinal and Maricopa voter reg directly feeds this race.
Lead Dem: Dr. Amish Shah — near-miss 2024, running again with growing endorsement coalition
Frontera overlap: Maricopa (Tier A) + Pinal (Tier B) precinct-level registration directly expands this electorate
Coordination: Voter reg events in CD-1 precincts from program launch in April
Congressional Offense
CD-6: The Flip Target
Ciscomani is the incumbent Republican — and Schweikert's own internal polling shows him in trouble. The district covers Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, and portions of Pima and Pinal. Douglas, Sierra Vista, Nogales. This is where Frontera's Tier B + C organizing overlaps directly with a winnable congressional seat.
DCCC priority: On the national target list — coordinated investment likely if a strong Dem nominee emerges
Frontera overlap: Cochise + Yuma + Santa Cruz tour stops are CD-6 field events by design
The ask: Every Cochise registration is a direct contribution to the CD-6 margin
Legislative Map — ADLCC Coordination
Currently: House 33R–27D · Senate 17R–13DNeed +4 House, +3 Senate for trifecta
Flip Targets
LD-4 · Paradise Valley / Scottsdale
Republicans swept all 3 seats in 2024. Aaron Lieberman (Senate), Karen Gresham + others (House). Anti-Trump suburban environment. Education + affordability messaging wins here.
LD-13 · Chandler / Gilbert
AIRC calls it 1.5% R advantage — the marquee flip target of the cycle. Kristie O'Brien (Senate), Brandy Reese + Racquel Armstrong (House). R swept in 2024.
LD-16 · Oro Valley
R advantage shrank from 3.6% to 1%. TJ Shope Senate seat. Tucson suburbs are trending Democratic — this should be a pickup.
Must Hold
LD-2 · North Phoenix
Rep. Judy Schwiebert running for Senate. House currently split D/R. Must hold every seat we have.
LD-8 · Tempe
Sen. Lauren Kuby re-election. Lean-D but requires turnout. ASU + urban Tempe base.
LD-9 · Mesa
Progressive groups spending heavily here. Marginal D. Must protect all three seats.
Watch: LD-7 (open R — Marshall leaving for Corp Comm), LD-10 (open R — Heap leaving), LD-27 (Kern returning — hold).
Tribal + Coordination
LD-6 · Apache / Navajo Tribal
Jamescita Peshlakai and Rep. Mae Peshlakai filed for House seats. Frontera's tribal organizing in Apache and Navajo counties feeds this district's base mobilization directly.
ADLCC Partnership
Frontera runs in explicit coordination with ADLCC on all legislative targets. Voter reg in LD-4, LD-13, LD-16 precincts is sequenced to feed the ADLCC field program. Shared data protocols. Joint county party training on legislative targets.
ESA Voucher Initiative — The Sleeper
Ballot Initiative
Protect Education Act
Filed March 13, 2026 by the Arizona Education Association and Save Our Schools Arizona. Needs 256,000 signatures by July 2 to qualify for the November ballot. The ESA program now covers 100,000 students at a cost of over $1 billion annually — with documented misuse of funds including luxury items. If it qualifies, it becomes the defining mobilization issue for Democratic base voters statewide.
What it does: $150K income cap for eligibility, bans luxury item purchases, returns unused funds to public schools, requires background checks and safety standards
Frontera activation: Signature gathering at every county tour event in April — volunteers already organized, earned media already happening, cost is zero incremental
If qualifies: Baked into all canvass scripts, phone bank pitches, and voter contact programs through November
Mobilization effect: Education + accountability drives low-propensity Dem turnout that wouldn't otherwise show up for a down-ballot legislative race
Ballot Measures (Certified)
Three Already Certified for November
Three statewide ballot measures are already certified as of March 2026: a constitutional amendment prohibiting vehicle-miles-traveled taxation, a statute prohibiting municipal food sales taxes without voter approval, and a statute declaring drug cartels as terrorist organizations.
VMT Tax Ban: Constitutional amendment — minimal Democratic mobilization value
Food Tax Prohibition: Cost-of-living framing — potential bipartisan appeal
Cartel Terrorism Statute: Republican-pushed — border and immigration messaging context
Note: None of these carry the Democratic mobilization weight that a qualified ESA initiative would
Messaging Architecture
"Arizona Works When Everyone Has a Voice"
Universal Frame

Cost of living. Education accountability. Protecting our elections. Rights and freedoms. These are Arizona stakes — not national politics. Every door knock, phone bank, and registration event starts here.

Hobbs

The adult in the room. 390 vetoes protecting Arizona from MAGA extremism. She can't deliver what Arizona needs with a Republican legislature. Give her a government she can actually work with.

Mayes

Fighting Trump in court every day while Arizona's other Republican AG candidates were helping plan January 6. She's the one standing between Arizona and federal overreach. 280 votes away from losing that.

Fontes

He protected your vote in 2022. His opponent denied the 2020 results and wants to make it harder to vote. This isn't complicated.

Legislature

Hobbs has been alone. She's vetoed nearly 400 bills in three years. The only way she delivers on affordability, education, and water security is with a legislature that will actually work with her.

ESA / Education

$1 billion in taxpayer money. Diamond rings and gaming laptops. Three years of zero guardrails. Lawmakers won't fix it. Voters will.

Voter Registration Hook

"Your vote is already their target. Make sure they can't touch it." — The registration ask is also the persuasion message for voters who feel like the system is rigged against them.

The Program Runs on the Platform

Every county, every organizer, every registration, every race — tracked in real time on the AZ Dems Command Center. The four deliverables are the strategy. The platform is the execution layer.

Launch AZ Dems Platform →About BxB

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Frontera Arizona 2026–2028 · Arizona Democratic Party · March 2026

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